Breaking Down the Remaining Schedule

Living in a state where my favorite baseball team won 38.8% of their games, and my favorite football team won 18.7% of their games; I have to say it feels pretty good to say that my favorite basketball team is .500 at the All-Star break and within 1 game of a potential playoff spot.  As you would expect in a 66-game condensed schedule that almost feels like an MLB regular season, the first half absolutely flew by.  Knowing that sometimes a 5 day break can do weird things to a team, let's take a look at the remaining schedule and try to figure out what to expect from these last 32 games.  Will the Wolves continue to compete like they did in the last week winning 4 out of their last 5?  Or will they run out of gas in the end and miss the playoffs for the 8th straight year?

Can Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio lead the Wolves to the Playoffs?

The Wolves finished the first half of the season an even 10-10 at home, and 7-7 on the road.  They were an impressive 12-8 within the Western Conference, thanks in part to a 2-1 record against the defending champion Dallas Mavericks, and a 3-1 record against those rival Houston Rockets.  With the victory over Utah on Wednesday night, they improved to 1-3 against divisional foes.  Against opponents who would currently be playoff teams if the playoffs started today, the Wolves were 9-12.  21 of their 34 games so far have been against would-be playoff teams.

Looking ahead, only half (16 out of 32) of the remaining games are against would-be playoff teams.  6 of their first 7 games after the break are against the Lakers, Clippers, and Blazers - 1 on the road and 1 at home against each.  Their first 17 games after the break are against Western Conference opponents, and 28 out of the last 32 games are against the West.  Hopefully, their success so far this season against conference foes will translate into the second half.  The Wolves will have plenty of chances to move up in the standings every night going against the very teams they are competing for playoff spots with.

The biggest thing that jumped out at me from their schedule was the last month of the season.  Only 4 of the last 12 games of the season are against current playoff teams.  And, 3 of the 4 playoff-caliber opponents are home games against the Clippers, Thunder, and Grizzlies.  The biggest scare of the schedule is a stretch from March 12th until April 2nd where they play 11 of 13 games on the road.  As we've seen so far, though, the Wolves have been just as competitive on the road as they've been at home.  Those long road trips may have a significant impact on the outcome of the season though.

In the past 5 seasons, the #8 seed in the Western Conference has had an average win percentage of .575.  In a 66 game season, that would equal 38 wins.  Using that as a guide, the Wolves would need to go 21-11 down the stretch to reach that mark.  Currently, there are only 6 teams in the conference that are even 5 games over .500, so I don't know if we'll need to get to 38 wins; but I wouldn't be too confident in anything less than 35 (which would mean going at least 18-14 in the 2nd half).

Let's hope the Wolves can hang in there the first couple of weeks after the All-Star break.  If they can stay around .500 going into the last month, they should be primed to make a move toward the playoffs in April!

Follow Wolves Rubes on Twitter @wolvesrubes.